CBI Quarterly Economic Highlights:
- UK economy sees a (temporary) bounce back in Q3 – UK GDP growth picked up to 15.5% in Q3, following a drop of 20% in Q2. However, UK GDP remained 8% below its pre-COVID levels
- Recovery to take a step back in Q4 – UK GDP is expected to decline once more in Q4 on the back of England’s November lockdown. However, the lockdown is expected to be less damaging than the first due to more sectors remaining open and businesses being better prepared to operate under COVID-safe protocols
- Vaccine news bring hope for 2021 recovery – the recent news of the development of effective COVID-19 vaccines provides hope for the near-term outlook. While there are still plenty of challenges to overcome in the distribution phase of vaccinating the wider UK population, the news should help support business confidence going into the new year.
Full details of the quarterly bulletin are available via this link https://www.cbi.org.uk/media/6057/2020-12-economic-bulletin-q4.pdf
Barclays Economic Update: UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 0.4% in oct’20
According to the estimated data published by the office for national statistics (ONS), monthly UK GDP increased by 0.4% in oct’20. Although GDP has increased for the sixth consecutive month, it remained 7.9% below the pre-covid level in feb’20.
In oct’20, monthly output in the service sector increased by 0.2%, the production sector by 1.3% and the construction sector by 1.0% compared to sep’20.
The production sector remained 4.4% below the pre-covid-19 level of feb’20. Meanwhile, services and construction output remained 8.6% and 6.4% below the feb’20 levels respectively.
Manufacturing provided the highest contribution in monthly GDP in oct’20, primarily due to increased demand for the manufacture of transport equipment. Health & social work also had a positive contribution to GDP due to an increase in the volume of activity. However, accommodation and food service activities reported a decline in oct’20 due to the impact of covid-19 response measures.
Accelerated shift of consumer to direct-from-manufacturer orders
According to research by Barclays corporate banking, direct-to-consumer (D”C) sales could increase to £120bn by 2023 from £96bn in 2020. Further, the number of manufacturing jobs linked to D”C could increase to 618k by 2023, from 500k in 2020.
In 2020 c.85 million parcels have been delivered by UK manufacturers to customers directly, and this is expected to increase 30% by 2023. products commonly purchased directly from manufacturers include clothes, electronics, food & drink, large household items and furniture.
The report indicated that the consumer shift towards direct-from-manufacturer is expected to open new revenue streams for logistics providers. the income share of D”C work is expected to increase to 50% by 2023 in the logistics sector.
Lee Collinson, head of manufacturing, transport and logistics at Barclays, stated that the habit of purchasing goods directly from the producer has been established in UK households. he added that this consumer demand is helping manufacturers in recovery from covid-19 with long-term structural changes.
Command Paper sets out the UK Government’s delivery of its commitments to the people of Northern Ireland
The Government published a Command Paper yesterday (10 December) setting out details of an agreement in principle on the implementation of the Northern Ireland Protocol between the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, Michael Gove, and the EU Commission Vice President, Maroš Šefčovič. Read the full press release.
Border Readiness Webinars: The UK cross-government Border and Protocol Delivery Group are running two webinars next week, focused on providing the most up to date information on new procedures before the changes on 1 Jan 2021. Both webinars will include step-by-step case studies, and breakout sessions focused on: Customs; Sanitary and Phytosanitary; Transport, including Cat 1 goods; EEA/EFTA; and Northern Ireland.
Preparing for 1st January 2012: With less than a month to go until the end of the Transition Period we are urging all businesses to ensure they are as prepared as possible. Businesses and traders should be aware of the steps they may have to take in order to adhere to new regulations, and to continue to operate without disruption.
Broad guidance for businesses and individuals can be found at gov.uk/transition.
Specific guidance is available for:
Food and drink businesses: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/prepare-your-food-and-drink-business-for-1-january-2021
Self Isolation Guidance: Following representations regarding the guidance on self isolation, which was interpreted resulting in longer isolation than necessary, we are awaiting update guidance from the DHSC.
Self-isolation for contacts of people with confirmed coronavirus shortened from 14 to 10 days across the UK from today Monday.
The change will also apply to people instructed to quarantine after returning from high-risk countries.
And it means anyone who has been self-isolating for 10 days or more will be able to end their quarantine from today Monday.
Workplace canteens: The updated guidance states that workplace canteens which are only open to staff at that workplace are not required to collect the details of their staff who visit the canteen. If a workplace canteen may be accessed by members of the public however (for example, anyone who is not an employee), then this venue would be required to collect the details of customers, visitors and staff. The updated guidance can be found in the link below
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/maintaining-records-of-staff-customers-and-visitors-to-support-nhs-test-and-trace
Drivers Hours: t there is a relaxation in drivers hours for retail deliveries and movement of food from ports. It does not otherwise cover the grain or intermediate product delivery chains https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/temporary-relaxation-of-the-enforcement-of-the-drivers-hours-rules-all-sectors-carriage-of-goods-by-road
PHE publishes NDNS: results from 2016 to 2019
Public Health England (PHE) has published statistics on the National Diet and Nutrition Survey (NDNS) rolling programme, a continuous, cross-sectional survey. It is designed to collect detailed, quantitative information on the food consumption, nutrient intake and nutritional status of the general population aged 1.5 years and over living in private households in the UK. The survey covers a representative sample of around 1000 people per year. Fieldwork began in 2008 and is now in its thirteenth year. The statistical report (statistical summary, appendices, data tables) published this week presents results for food consumption, nutrient intakes and blood analyte indicators of nutritional status by age and sex for 2016 to 2019. For key foods and nutrients of public health interest, a statistical comparison of results from the previous report (2014 to 2016) and an analysis of the long term trends is also included. Overall the report shows that the UK population continues to consume too much sugar and saturated fat and not enough fruit, vegetables and fibre. However, consumption of sugar-sweetened soft drinks has fallen in most age groups. There is evidence of low blood levels for folate and vitamin D in most age groups; and for folate there has been a fall in blood levels over time. Low iron intakes, and to a lesser extent low haemoglobin and iron stores, were seen in girls aged 11 to 18 years and women aged 19 to 64 years. The analyses presented in this report do not identify any new nutritional problems in the general population.
FSA Covid-19 Consumer Tracker results published
The Food Standards Agency (FSA) has published the latest findings of its Covid-19 Consumer Tracker, which monitors attitudes, experiences and behaviours of consumers in relation to food in England, Wales and Northern Ireland during the Covid-19 pandemic. It shows that levels of food insecurity dipped in August but increased significantly in September and have remained steady since. A significant minority (20-38%) of people continue to eat more risky foods past their use-by date. Prior to the second national lockdown in England, a tenth of respondents said they felt it was safe to eat out in October, continuing a slow but significant upward trend seen since early summer.
Claims under the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS) are currently open for pay periods in November and December 2020.
You have until 11.59pm tonight 14 December to submit claims for November.
Make sure you have the latest information by joining the live Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme webinar, which includes:
who can claim
who you can claim for
how to calculate what you can claim
how to make a claim.
We will continue to update our webinars to reflect the latest information as it becomes available.
Register here
We are also running monthly webinars on the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Statutory Sick Pay Rebate Scheme. Get the latest information on:
who can claim
who you can claim for
how to make a claim
what you may be entitled to, and more.
Register here
You can ask questions during all our live webinars using the on-screen text box.
Our webinars are regularly updated to provide the latest government guidance on changes as they develop.
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| Dear customer,
The Brexit transition period ends in 20 days. If your business trades goods with Europe or you represent businesses who do, you’ll need to be prepared for changes that will come into effect from 1 January 2021.
We understand these are challenging times, but it is important to make sure that your business is ready for these new rules. At the time of writing, talks are ongoing about our future trading arrangements with Europe. These rules will not change or go away, and the steps that you need to take to prepare, are needed in any scenario before you can trade from 1 January.
If you’re new to customs processes it will help you to watch our series of short videos on HMRC’s YouTube channel which introduce importing and exporting:
We also have a Trader checklist to help you prepare for the end of the Brexit transition period.
In addition, we are running live webinars where you can hear the latest information and ask questions to help you prepare for these new rules:
Exporting: Actions you need to take to prepare for 1 January 2021
The webinar explains what actions you need to take to export goods from Great Britain to the EU and move goods between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. We’ll provide a run-through of the key export processes – staged border controls, zero-rated VAT, customs declaration, using an intermediary as well as licences, certificates and authorisations that you’ll need.
Please register to take part if you’re planning to export.
What are customs import declarations?
If you import goods, you’ll need to prepare for making customs import declarations on controlled goods from 1 January, and by the end of June on all goods. This webinar will help you to understand what they are in more detail. This includes what is needed for simplified declarations, supplementary declarations, making import declarations without authorisation and delayed import declarations.
Please register to take part if you’re planning to import.
We update our webinars constantly to provide you with the latest government guidance and information as it develops.
Protect yourself from scams
Stay vigilant about scams, which may mimic government messages as a way of appearing authentic. Search ‘scams’ on GOV.UK for information on how to recognise genuine HMRC contact. You can also forward suspicious emails claiming to be from HMRC to phishing@hmrc.gov.uk and texts to 60599.
Access the National Cyber Security Centre’s new guide on how to stay secure online and protect yourself or your business against cyber crime by searching ‘Cyber Aware’ on GOV.UK.
Yours sincerely
Katherine Green and Sophie Dean – Directors General, Borders and Trade, HMRC |
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