Dear All,
Detailed below is the Weekly News for 29th April.
There is still time to reserve places at the Bakery of the Future Congress in Manchester from 30th May to 2 June. www.aibi-congress2019.co.uk
Have a good week and enjoy the bank holiday-back on 13th May.
Gordon Polson – Chief Executive
Federation of Bakers Ltd
Barclays Economic Update: UK: strong growth, soft inflation
The feb’19 labour market report echoed the strength seen in the same month’s activity data, likely related to Brexit contingency planning ahead of the initial mar’19 exit deadline. While total employment reached record levels, this was primarily driven by a jan’19 surge in hiring, with employment in feb’19 increasing by just 7k m-o-m. However the dynamics in mar’19 are similar to jan’19/feb’19, q1’19 is set to be a strong quarter for job creation. In line with the Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC) recruitment survey, wage growth improved in feb’19, with private sector wages for instance falling 0.6% on the month and slowing from 4.3% to 3.2% (y⁄y). This suggest that earnings growth may have plateaued and that the q4’19 surge in unit labour costs will not be repeated despite stagnant productivity, mitigating upside risks to the longer-term inflation outlook.
Mar’19 inflation moved to the downside with headline and core consumer price index (CPI) both unchanged relative to feb’19. Volatile components contributed adversely to headline CPI/CPIH. While it is expected that the headline and core inflation, both to average 2.0% through 2019 and 1.8% in 2020. The adjusted core CPI inflation forecast is down for 2019 by 0.1pp to 1.9% on the expectation that a lagged impact of currency appreciation will weigh on core goods inflation. The 2020 CPI is expected to be 2.1%, on firmed up service inflation and resilient labour inputs costs in the non-tradable sector. Risk remains moderate at this stage while there is not much scope for meaningful excess demand as gross domestic product (GDP) forecast continues to show growth below 1.5%.
FT Brexit Update: Theresa May has dropped a plan to try to secure parliamentary approval for her moribund EU withdrawal agreement before next week’s local elections, as hopes fade for any cross-party accord with Labour on Brexit.
The prime minister wants to ask MPs to vote on legislation to approve Britain’s exit from the EU, but the withdrawal agreement bill was not included in next week’s business for the House of Commons because of fears it would face certain defeat.
Mrs May had been considering holding a vote on the bill ahead of the local elections on Thursday.
But the government’s Brexit talks with Labour have stalled and many of Mrs May’s advisers are now resigned to the fact that the bill will not be approved before May 23, when Britain would have to take part in European Parliament elections.
One ally of the prime minister suggested the “next massive deadline” for passing Mrs May’s Brexit deal could slip to June 30, just before newly elected British MEPs would take their seats in the European Parliament for the first time.
WRAP Messaging on Food Waste. The largest retailers and many of the UK’s leading food manufacturers and foodservice companies share a commitment to reduce food waste. The Waste & Resources Action Programme (WRAP) is seeking your help to make this commitment even stronger.
Last year, the industry united behind a roadmap, setting out how the UK can contribute to delivering UN Sustainable Development Goal 12.3: to halve food waste by 2030. Food waste is not only morally wrong, there is also a strong financial incentive to do our bit. More than 10 million tonnes of food are wasted in the UK annually, worth over £20 billion.
The UK government fully supports the roadmap and is looking to industry to commit to its success. DEFRA’s strategy for waste management includes the roadmap milestones. They also indicate that if a voluntary approach is insufficient to meet the targets, then mandatory reporting on food waste is very likely to be introduced. Clearly working in a proactive way is in everyone’s interests.
The first milestone in the Roadmap is for September 2019. By this date WRAP will need evidence from businesses, (with a focus on larger businesses to deliver scale), on how they are working to reduce food surplus and waste. To achieve this objective, we would encourage UK food & drink businesses to use the Roadmap Guidance and to implement a ‘Target, Measure and Act’ (TMA) approach in their UK operations.
To help identify the type, and level, of support UK businesses want, and need, WRAP is asking all food businesses to complete a short TMA self-assessment https://www.surveymonkey.co.uk/r/TMA_self_assessment. All responses will be absolutely confidential, will be securely held by WRAP, and will not be shared with any third parties.
It is vitality important that more UK businesses officially sign up to support delivery of the Roadmap and hope that we can count on your support. To help make it easier for manufacturers, all the major UK retailers have agreed to use the same guidelines and terminology in all their food waste discussions with their suppliers.
You can contact ian.bowles@wrap.org.uk who will explain the process. The roadmap is available on WRAP’s website here and they also provide extensive guidance, and free support, for businesses looking to address food surplus and waste in their UK operations.
Titanium Dioxide (E171):On Friday 26 April, France officially notified the Commission about the French Order on the suspension of the food additive titanium dioxide (E171). Food Drink Europe (FDE) understands that this issue will be brought to the Standing Committee meeting on 13 May 2019. In preparation of this Standing Committee meeting on 13 May, FDE discussed this issue with members on 25 April and agreed on some points to be used for advocacy at national level, to encourage national authorities attending the Standing Committee meeting to contest the French measure at the Standing Committee.
The Food Standards Agency: Food and You wave five survey report published. Read more: https://www.food.gov.uk/news-alerts/news/food-and-you-wave-five-survey-report-published
FDF Convention: is on 14 May at the National Gallery, London. Speakers and panellists will cover the big industry issues and of particular interest to you will be the session analysing trading in a post-Brexit world and the keynote from DIT Minister Graham Stuart. Other sessions include retail and product trends; plastics and packaging and the changing retail landscape. DEFRA Shadow Secretary Susan Hayman MP will be addressing the Convention and other distinguished speakers and panellists include Nestle CEO Stefano Agostini; Ocado Head of Buying Rose Price; DIT Director General John Mahon; AHDB Chairman Sir Peter Kendall and retail competition expert Andrew Taylor. We also have a session focusing on ‘Brand Britain’ and will be delighted to welcome representatives of the UK nations including Scotland Food and Drink CEO James Withers and Northern Ireland Food and Drink Executive Director Michael Bell as panellists.
The Convention is always a great opportunity for senior leaders in the industry to get together and there will be plenty of opportunities for networking and catching up with peers. The day will be chaired by well-known food journalist Mike Stones. We are kindly supported this year by Lloyds Bank and Alpro and companies already signed up to attend include Weetabix; Pladis; KP Snacks; McCain; Nestle; Haribo and Taylor’s. We can arrange discounted places for multiple ticket bookings.
To book places for your company please contact our Marketing Executive Casey Horn casey.horn@fdf.org.uk Further information about the event: https://www.fdf.org.uk/events/FDF-Convention-2019
