Chief Executive’s Weekly News for 15th April 2019

Dear All,

Detailed below is the Weekly News for 15th April.  Have a good week and a great Easter break. Weekly News will be back on 29th April.

Gordon Polson – Chief Executive

Federation of Bakers Ltd.

 

Barclays Economic Update: UK GDP (mom), February 2019

previous: 0.5%

actual: 0.2%

The UK economy grew 0.2% (m⁄m) in feb’19, up from 0.5% (m⁄m) in jan’19, pushing further up the q1’19 gross domestic product (GDP) carry over to 0.5pp. This growth was driven primarily by production sector as businesses boosted inventories ahead of the initially scheduled mar’19 brexit deadline, contradicting some strong data such as soft car production but by and large in line with surveys released since the beginning of 2019. Mar’19 surveys suggest continued strength in manufacturing output but some possible weakness in the service sector. Short-term growth momentum remained stable at 1.5% seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) but the y-o-y figure benefits from positive base effects due to adverse weather conditions in feb’18/mar’18.

Within the service sector, real estate activities were the single clearly positive contribution in feb’19 with 0.1pp while all other sectors moved sideways. The 3m⁄3m as well as the 3m⁄y growth rates continued to single out financial and insurance activities as the main drag, while wholesales & retail, information & communication displayed the strongest momentum. The rebound in activity in jan’19 has set up the sector for a positive quarterly contribution to GDP growth of about 0.2pp – 0.3pp, lower than the 0.4pp and 0.5pp in q4’18 and q3’18 respectively.

Within production as well, most of the sectors rose in feb’19 with consumer and intermediate goods production echoing strong trade services. In terms of industrial groups all three sectors consumer, intermediary and investment goods saw monthly increases. Some businesses have changed their maintenance periods to match the brexit negotiation agenda, bringing forward production where possible while also scheduling annual shut downs in April rather than during the summer months.

The construction sector continues to display an uneven m-o-m profile with the feb’19 rebound, contradicting a fall in construction surveys in feb’19. New work was the main driver of growth in feb’19. The rebound in private housing since the dec’19 contraction suggests that residences will make a positive contribution to overall gross fixed capital formation in q1’19. overall, the sector is on track to grow by about 2.0% (q⁄q) in q2’19 and contribute to about 0.1pp to GDP growth.

 

 

FDF Brexit Update: Chief Executive Ian Wright CBE:
Although not as long as I expected, the extension granted to the UK by the EU Council at one minute to midnight on Wednesday night offers us all a moment for decompression.  A much-needed break for all of us, given the near miss that the UK has just survived, which would have meant exiting without a deal at 23.00 hrs tonight.

However, we cannot waste this precious time we have been given. Halloween is just over six months away. Government and Parliament must act with dispatch and resolve in those six months what they have so far failed to accomplish in the last three years. If they can agree and pass a deal in Parliament that is agreed with the EU before 31 October 2019, we can exit before this date.

In theory, this should be an achievable goal. Except that all the potential ways out of the crisis have so far been nixed every time they have been put to the House of Commons. The battle for agreement on if and how we exit the EU will surely continue. It may, though, be moved – if temporarily – out of the limelight while other contests designed to help the country make up its mind come centre stage. Each of these will eat into the time available.  These include the European Parliamentary elections on 23 May 2019, a possible Conservative Party leadership election (which could take up to two months), and an equally likely General Election (which can’t happen much quicker than 35 days depending on the number of bank holidays in the way).  Even the roughest of timelines puts us dangerously close to being in exactly the same position as we currently occupy on 31 October 2019.

All the participants in the election contests just outlined will have their own manifesto. We think food and drink should have one of our own. We used this device very successfully in the 2017 General Election to measure candidates and parties against FDF aspirations for the future of our industry. Now we will do so again, working with other colleagues across the food and drink industry. We will accentuate the positive, focussing on what the industry wants and needs to flourish. This will be your manifesto and we will keep you by much informed as the thinking develops.

I wish you all a very Happy Easter, and enjoy some much-needed rest.

 

Manufacturers urged to act on energy savings opportunity: According to the report “energy reporting” published by Inenco stated that it has combined primary research of business energy professionals with insight from more than 300 energy audits to reveal fresh attitudes to energy and how manufacturers fare against other industries. In addition, almost two-thirds (60.0%) of all savings identified in the audits from a broad range of sectors were attributed to manufacturers, highlighting the potential in the sector to make direct savings to the bottom line from energy efficiency. The report found that the manufacturing sector has the greatest potential for energy savings, yet many organisations are failing to act on opportunities to cut cost and carbon. thousands of manufacturers will need to comply with the energy savings opportunity scheme (ESOS) by dec’19, completing audits of their energy usage across operations to identify areas to save energy and cut costs. The lack of engagement on energy reporting is wider than just ESOS. The survey also revealed that only 29.0% of manufacturers fully understand the new streamlined energy carbon reporting (SECR) framework, despite the scheme coming into effect in April 2019.

Food and Drink Health and Safety Awards 2019 Sponsored by the IOSH Food and Drink Industries Group, these awards recognise innovative projects which have produced a practical solution to, and made a positive impact on, an occupational safety and health problem in the food and drink manufacturing industry. The IOSH Food and Drink Industries Group is a member of the Food and Drink Manufacture Forum (FDMF) and these awards support the FDMFs Common Strategy 2016-21. International entries are very welcome.

Awarding good practice

Every year representatives from IOSH, the HSE and the trade associations and trade unions involved in the Food and Drink Manufacture Health and Safety Forum will judge the entries. These range from very small initiatives to major programmes from larger companies, but all have made a positive impact on a health and safety issue in the food and drink manufacturing industry.

Winners and commendations

The Awards will be presented at the Food and drink manufacturing health and safety conference in October 2019. We will announce one winner and two runners-up.

Why enter?

Entering the Awards is a great way to celebrate your success and, if you are selected as a winner or runner-up, you can share that success and inspire others in the wider industry.

There are also generous prizes on offer, including a cheque for £750 for the winner.

Here is the link to entries  https://exclusive.iosh.com/membership/our-membership-network/our-groups/food-and-drink-industries-group/food-and-drink-health-and-safety-awards/

The Federation of Bakers is delighted to welcome a new associate member, AIB International UK.

AIB International UK, provides training, consultation and support including a wide range of bakery and food safety services.

The company was founded in America in 1919 (formerly the American Institute of Baking) as a technology and information transfer centre for bakers and food processors. Its original mission was to “put science to work for the baker”, a theme that has expanded yet remains central to its programmes, products, and services.

Lee Taylor, Bakery Professional at AIB International UK commented ”our global mission is to empower the food industry to produce high quality, safe food for consumers. Our inspectors, scientists, bakers and technical experts partner with our clients to navigate the complex industry in which we work. We are looking forward to continuing our important work in partnership with the Federation of Bakers”.

UK Wheat Crop-The Grocer reports that AHDB have confirmed that UK wheat futures have fallen since the highs of last summer to £160-£165/tonne from £200/tonne. Delivered and exfarm prices havent fallen in line yet but the new season crop ispected to be big with 1.871Mha planted, the largest since 2014. If yields are on avergae the UK whaet crop would be 15M tonnes in 2019/20 compared to 14M tonnes last yaer. BUT there is still time for weather to play a part impacting on these predictions!

FDF Events: FDF Award entries have now closed, with the exception of three categories which have been extended until Friday 26 April 2019. The categories still open are Food and Drink Scientist of the Year, Education Initiative, and Food and Drink Engineer of the Year. Find full details »

Our FDF Convention 2019 is fast-approaching on Tuesday 14 May 2019. This is the place to be to hear about the big issues facing our industry. This year we will look at; Brexit Outcomes, Changing Consumer Food Trends and How it Affects the Grocery Industry, Selling Brand UK, Plastics & Packaging, and The Future Shape of Grocery. Tickets are selling fast – Register today.