Chief Executive’s Weekly News for 4th May 2020

Dear All,

Detailed below is a fairly comprehensive update.

I hope you can enjoy the bank holiday on Friday as we look forward to the governments announcements on coming out of lock down.

Take care and have a good week.

Gordon Polson

Chief Executive – Federation of Bakers Ltd

 

Economic /Coronavirus Update from Rabobank

End of the Beginning
At the start of the year we went from “just a flu” to a global pandemic in barely two months. We tried to eradicate the virus through containment, but failed miserably. Herd immunity was briefly entertained in some countries, but it turned out people didn’t knowingly want to sign up to being guinea pigs and contract the virus. Particularly not as the same experts that had reassured them scant weeks ago there would be sufficient health care capacity to deal with any pandemic quickly had to admit they lacked sufficient resources after all. So it became all about “flattening the curve”, with varying degrees of lockdowns and social distancing measures deployed across the globe to manage the amount of new cases so our limited health care resources could cope.

These measures are now seemingly yielding results, as new cases and new deaths are down in several countries, allowing our health care systems to better deal with this emergency situation. That’s obviously good news, in what’s still a terrible scenario. Talk of a relaxation of the lockdown restrictions is in the air, with many governments announcing their plans and first steps.

In the relative optimism that follows, we risk losing sight of the bigger picture. We haven’t eradicated the virus. Nor can we assume we are substantially “on the way”. Containment has failed, remember? We are flattening the curve. Lockdowns seem to be working, but if we get rid of them, surely we risk reinfections, which may trigger new lockdowns and another devastating blow to people’s confidence. Examples like Hokkaido, but also to some extent Singapore, provide a clear warning signal on how difficult it is to control this virus. It’s a communication nightmare for governments: how to relax restrictions, provide a boost to morale, yet explain to people we haven’t defeated the virus yet and they need to stay cautious?

Also, while economies can be turned off by their respective governments, it will prove harder to flick them back on. Ongoing social distancing makes for an unviable business model for large parts of the services industry, with sectors as varied as restaurants, airliners and hair stylists in deep trouble. Additionally, while some may flock to the beaches when lockdowns are relaxed, many will hunker down at home, self-isolating where possible to minimize the health risks for themselves and their family members. Hardly fertile soil for a V-shaped recovery.

The understandable desire for all of this to go away makes it too uncomfortable for many to contemplate the far more realistic scenario this virus will take at least 12-24 months to defeat, during which times tremendous economic damage will be wrought. Or to consider some business models will undergo permanent changes as the status quo is no longer viable. Most fiscal and monetary stimulus measures have been aimed at paving over the cracks, but as the tough times stretch on hard questions will have to be asked over what needs to be saved and how. Promises to make everyone whole and for no one to lose their shirt are unrealistic, even in the brave new world where the printing presses are running 24/7. When that realization sets in, look for financial markets to go through another round of volatility.

 

 

 

On Thursday 30 April, according to preliminary estimates from Eurostat, Eurozone GDP fell by 3.8% in the first quarter compared with the previous quarter
This is the largest drop since the series began in 1995, and larger than seen in the worst of the financial crisis. France’s GDP dropped by 5.8%, Italy by 4.7% and Spain by 5.2% in the same period.

 

On Wednesday 29 April, U.S. gross domestic product fell at a 4.8% annual rate in the first quarter of the year, according to the Commerce Department
This is the first decline since 2014 and the worst quarterly contraction since 2008, when the country was in a deep recession.

 

PPE(1): On Wednesday 29 April, the CBI published a factsheet to help businesses understand the PPE challenge and the UK-wide initiatives being put in place to solve it.

 

PPE(2) This is a link supported by CBI www.ppeexchange.co.uk which helps match and map PPE demand with potential suppliers.

 

PPE(3): HMT has announced that PPE purchased by care homes, businesses, charities and individuals will be free from VAT for a three-month period.

PPE(4): HSE Message: I refer you to the new HSE web pages on low dust flour https://www.hse.gov.uk/food/low-flour-dust.htm.  I’d be grateful if you would direct your members to it.  It’s highly pertinent guidance as it advocates a work method that potentially removes the need for wearing RPE, thus reducing pressure on RPE stocks.

Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme: HMRC has updated its guidance on the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme, including further information on maternity leave.

 

See a link to the wheat demand article produced by AHBD: https://ahdb.org.uk/news/analyst-insight-what-is-the-impact-of-coronavirus-on-wheat-demand-for-flour

 

 

EFSA publishes first cumulative risk reports for pesticides

The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) has published the results of its 2 pilot assessments on the cumulative risks posed to humans by residues of multiple pesticides in food (FAQ). The assessments – one considering chronic effects on the thyroid system and the other acute effects on the nervous system – are the culmination of a multi-year collaboration between EFSA and the Dutch National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM). The documents were finalised following feedback from a variety of stakeholders, including national institutions, academia, non-governmental organisations and commercial associations.  The overall conclusion for both assessments is that consumer risk from dietary cumulative exposure is, with varying degrees of certainty, below the threshold that triggers regulatory action for all the population groups covered.  EFSA assessments covering the effects of pesticides on other organs and body functions will be undertaken in the future

 

 

Vitamin D advice during Covid-19 lockdown

The Defra Minister, Victoria Prentis, has confirmed that the Government has reissued advice for vitamin D supplementation. The advice states that if you are not going outdoors often you should consider taking a daily supplement containing 10 micrograms of vitamin D.  It is recommending that everyone follows this advice while the “stay at home” measures are in place.  The Government continues to advise that during this period everyone follows a healthy, balanced diet in line with the national food model, the Eatwell Guide.  Public Health England has also updated channels such as Change4Life, Start4Life and One You, to make them consistent with the wider Covid-19 and general advice on healthier eating

 

International Trade Select Committee session on UK food security

The Commons International Trade Select Committee held a meeting this afternoon focussing on the security of UK food supplies as part of its inquiry examining the impact of Covid-19.  Defra estimates that only 53% of food consumed in the UK in 2018 was produced domestically, with the rest coming via complex supply chains from abroad, often on a “just in time” basis.  The Committee took evidence from senior representatives of the British Retail Consortium and the Food and Drink Federation (video).

 

FSA – FSA Appoints New Chief Scientific Advisor FSA announced on 21 April 2020 that it had appointed a new Chief Scientific Advisor. Professor Robin May, Director of the Institute of Microbiology and Infection at the University of Birmingham, replaces Professor Guy Poppy. He will take up the role in July 2020.

 

AHDB:- Outcome of Consultation on AHDB Published Defra and the devolved administrations published on 20 April 2020 a summary of views and Government response to the consultation on AHDB. The consultation, which ran from 31 August to 9 November 2018, attracted 901 responses. The outcome document covers the case for maintaining a statutory levy, accountability to levy payers, the structure of AHDB, priorities and next steps. Government will work with AHDB to put in place proposed changes, including introducing a five-year ballot; updating the governance structure; and prioritising AHDB activity on market development and improving farm performance.

 

Campden BRI White paper – Labelling origin of primary ingredients

 

Legislation that requires the origin of primary ingredients to be labelled when it is different from the given origin of the food applied from 1 April 2020. Our regulatory affairs team has put together a white paper to help food business operators (FBOs) decide whether they need to provide a statement.

 

 

 

 

 

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Update from Department of Health and Social Care on home testing kits and test site appointments

At yesterday’s daily press briefing, the Foreign Secretary has announced that thousands more home test kits and regional test site appointments are now available on gov.uk.

 

Arrange a test on gov.uk.

 

If you have employees who cannot work from home and have coronavirus symptoms, they are eligible for testing,  (for example, construction workers, shop workers, emergency plumbers and delivery drivers).

 

Apply for a test.

 

There is also guidance from the Scottish Government on who can apply for expanded access to testing in Scotland.

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HSE Chief Executive’s message for International Workers’ Memorial Day

Our Chief Executive, Sarah Albon, shared a message to mark the particular importance of International Workers’ Memorial Day in the face of these extraordinary times and recognising the efforts of the key workers who are risking their own health and wellbeing during the coronavirus outbreak.

 

Read Sarah’s message in full.

HSE assembles specialist unit to support UK’s coronavirus response

HSE have assembled a team of specialists to assist the Government’s national effort to get personal protective equipment (PPE) to frontline health care workers fighting the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

 

Find out more.

Mental wellbeing while working from home

During the coronavirus outbreak, it’s important to look after your mental wellbeing while staying at home.

 

Stress affects us all at different times and in different ways.

 

Our downloadable stress talking toolkit has ideas which you can adapt to suit current working arrangements.

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Email was sent to gordon.polson@fob.uk.com

www.hse.gov.uk

 

 

FDF Webinar: Unlocking the Lockdown

Webinar: Unlocking the Lockdown

Tuesday: 6 May 11:00am – 12:00pm

Register »

The restrictions placed on many businesses during lockdown have meant that most have had to adapt to new ways of working, addressing issues of supply and demand and, in some cases, businesses/ customers who have temporarily closed.

Although the plan for coming out of lockdown is currently uncertain, businesses can start to plan for the likely implications that “unlocking the lockdown” will have, for example which employees do you back from furlough first, potential redundancies, arrangements for vulnerable employees, complying with social distancing advice, the provision of PPE, testing employees and other appropriate safeguards.

Join Squire Patton Boggs to understand the practical legal and HR issues food and drink businesses are likely to encounter in a slow / phased return process.

Presenters: Rob Elvin Matthew Lewis