Director’s Weekly Blog – 3rd April 2017

FOB Announcements

FOB 75th Anniversary Dinner: We are delighted to announce details of the Federation of Bakers’ 75th Anniversary Dinner which will be held on Wednesday, 27th September at Fishmongers’ Hall, London Bridge EC4R 9EL.

The event will be attended by up to 175 bakery industry executives and guests for an evening of celebration and networking with industry colleagues, past and present.

This black tie event will begin at 6.15pm with a champagne reception, followed by a three course banquet with engaging speakers and musical entertainment. The evening will conclude with after dinner drinks and offers an ideal opportunity to engage with other industry stakeholders in a relaxed and convivial setting.

Tickets: We are now taking bookings for this event and tickets are available at £220 per seat or £2,200 for a table of 11 (one goes free). We are delighted to offer a 10% early bird discount on all bookings made before 30 April 2017 bringing the price down to £198 per ticket or £1,980 for a table of 11.  All prices exclude VAT.

Please note that ticket sales are not restricted to FOB members and the wider bakery industry and other stakeholders are encouraged to book tickets so please spread the word.

Numbers are limited so please book your tickets without delay to secure your place using the online booking facility on our website at: fob.uk.com

Sponsorship: We are delighted to announce AB Mauri as our headline sponsor along with our other generous sponsors for this event including Baker Perkins, Bühler, Kwik Lok, Lesaffre, Zeelandia and Zeppelin UK.

Hotel Accommodation: We have negotiated preferential rates at a number of hotels within easy reach of the venue using our events partner PRIORITY.  To view the rate card and book your hotel room please visit the events page at PRIORITY or contact them on 01473 550 620 and quote the event code: fbmb.  Or you can download a copy of the Hotel Rate Card.

If you have any queries please contact amy.yeates@fob.uk.com or caroline.ford@fob.uk.com

Economic News

CBI Economic Update: Inflation still has further to go on its upward path.

Annual CPI inflation climbed to 2.3% in February, exceeding the Bank of England’s MPC’s target of 2.0% for the first time in over three years, although it remains within the “tolerance band” and is still relatively low by historical comparison. The drivers of February’s rise were reasonably broad-based. Rising fuel prices were a theme, but there were similarly large contributions from other “transport” components, including purchases of new vehicles and transport services. A small but significant contribution also came from higher food prices, partly reflecting shortages in some vegetables due to poor weather in Europe.

Inflation still has further to go on its upward path: as fuel prices continue to pick up, and the impact of the weaker pound feeds through to import costs. Indeed, there is already signs of the latter: input price inflation remained in the double digits at 19.1% year-on-year in February, chiming with messages the CBI has been hearing from its members about growing cost pressures. Meanwhile, factory gate prices climbed to a five-year high of 3.7%, suggesting that costs are being passed on.

Retail sales volumes rose by 1.4% on the month in February, above consensus expectations for a rise of 0.4%. The largest upward contribution to growth came from non-food stores, which saw sales rise by 1.8% in February, reflecting higher volumes in all of its sub-sectors. Annual growth also rebounded in February, with sales volumes rising by 3.7%, up from a three-and-a-half year low of 1.1% in January. Non-store retailing contributed the most to growth, with volumes rising by 26.0% on the year in February.

The CBI’s Distributive Trades Survey suggests retail sales growth has remained steady through March, and firms expect it to accelerate in the year to April. Sales for the time of year were considered to be slightly below seasonal norms. Orders placed on suppliers fell again over the year, but are set to rise somewhat next month. Year-on-year growth in internet sales volumes picked up to broadly in line with the long-run average and are expected to grow at a broadly similar pace in the year to April.

The CBI’s Industrial Trends Survey reported that manufacturers’ export order books were at the highest level since December 2013, driven by a broad-based strengthening of which half was accounted for by the pharmaceutical and mechanical engineering sectors. Total order books remained firm in March, after strengthening to a two-year high in February. Output growth rose at its quickest pace since July 2014 in the three months to March, with manufacturers’ expectations for growth for the quarter ahead the strongest in 23 years. Meanwhile, firms’ expectations for selling price inflation remain elevated.

The CBI/PwC Financial Services Survey found that sentiment in the financial services sector had stabilised in the three months to March after having deteriorated throughout 2016. Business volumes saw healthy growth in the first quarter of 2017, expanding at a faster pace than expected in the previous survey, but growth is expected to slow over the coming three months. The rise in business volumes drove robust growth in profits, in line with expectations, with profitability expected to improve more moderately in the quarter ahead.

Other news

Sugar Reduction: Public Health England(PHE) has published the ‘guidelines’ for industry to achieve a 20% reduction in sugar by 2020, ‘Sugar reduction: Achieving the 20%A technical report outlining progress to date, guidelines for industry, 2015 baseline levels in key foods and next steps’. A copy is available at the link https://www.gov.uk/government/news/guidelines-on-reducing-sugar-in-food-published-for-industry

The category impacting on FoB members is the Morning Good category. Here are some of the main points regarding morning goods:

  1. The baseline sales weighted average for total sugar per 100g has moved from 14.8g to 12.5g. This is in response to PHE have received wider category data. Pages 23 and 24. The weighting to arrive at the calculations was 80%/20% in home/out of home.
  2. Consequently the 5% reduction has reduced from 14.1g to 11.9g and the 20% reduction from 11.8g to 10.0g.
  3. Naturally occurring sugars: PHE has allowed 3.8g in yogurt and fromage frais and 10g for plain dried fruit in breakfast cereals but in all other foods no allowances have been made because the products would still contain the majority of their sugar as added sugar e.g. sultanas in a cake.  Pages 16 and 17.
  4. Note tables on pages 12,32 and 33 which to my reading present a good story for manufacturers of morning goods.
  5. NPD targets have been dropped.

FoB has worked closely with PHE in the development of the guidelines for morning goods. This will be discussed at the FoB Technical Committee meeting on 5th April. It is worth noting that PHE included in its forward work program, re-emphasising the 2017 salt reduction targets.

Action on Sugar: Are holding a parliamentary reception on 17th May from 4-6pm as part of National Sugar Awareness Week. Attendance is by invitation only.

Apprenticeship Levy: Aa reminder that the Apprenticeship Levy will be coming into force on Thursday 6 April. If you have not already done so, please register for a digital account on the Apprenticeship Service (formerly Digital Apprenticeship Service), click here to set up your account: https://manage-apprenticeships.service.gov.uk/ . The Skills Funding Agency (SFA) have created a video to shows the process of setting up an account, which can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XDYEtj16E38  , or employers can find a Q&A here: https://sfadigital.blog.gov.uk/2017/03/17/5-questions-employers-ask-when-registering-for-the-apprenticeship-service/.  Employers will need to set up an account to be able to see your levy credits and top ups from May 2017.

For those employers who have already registered, you can now see the providers who can offer apprenticeships to levy paying employers to help you make informed selections. This can be found here: https://findapprenticeshiptraining.sfa.bis.gov.uk/.

Furthermore, so you all have as much information as you need all in one place – an overview of all things relating to the Levy from Government can be found here: https://findapprenticeshiptraining.sfa.bis.gov.uk/. FDF also has an apprenticeship levy that gives you access to updates and useful guides relating to the Levy. Find this by clicking here: https://www.fdf.org.uk/membersonly/apprenticeship-levy.aspx.?tr=12361cL

FSA-‘Food and You’ Survey: Food and You is the FSA’s flagship consumer survey. It is a biennial, random probability survey, with previous waves conducted in 2010, 2012, and 2014. Wave 4 (2016) of the survey continues some of the same question areas as the previous surveys and also includes new sections on wider food issues of concern. Key findings for Wave 4 include:

  •  Women were more likely than men to report all or most of the responsibility for cooking or preparing food in the home (67% compared with 30%). Women were also more likely to report all or most of the responsibility for household food shopping (68% compared with 31%).
  •  To get an overall picture of people’s food safety behaviour, we use the Index of Recommended Practice (IRP), a composite measure of food hygiene knowledge and behaviours within the home. In this wave there was increase in average IRP score from 64 in Wave 1 to 67 in Wave 4, indicating a small overall improvement in food safety practices.
  •  The FSA recommends that people wash their hands thoroughly with soap and warm water before cooking and after touching the bin, going to the toilet, handling pets or handling raw food (particularly raw meat). Overall 86% of respondents reported always washing their hands before starting to prepare or cook food.
  •  When asked what respondents thought the temperature inside the fridge should be, the majority (48%) said it should be between 0 and 5°C (the recommended temperature). This was similar to the proportion in Wave 1 (46%) but lower than the proportion in Waves 2 and 3 (both 53%).
  •  The proportion of respondents citing the ‘use by’ date as the best indicator of whether food is safe to eat, in line with FSA recommend practice, has increased since Wave 1. Three quarters (75%) cited ‘use by’ dates as an indicator of whether food was safe to eat. While similar to the proportions in Wave 2 and Wave 3, this was higher than the proportion in Wave 1 (62%).
  •  When asked which methods they used to defrost meat or fish, the method reported by the highest proportion of respondents (58%) was leaving meat or fish at room temperature, which is not recommended.
  •  When shown a list of factors which might influence their decision on where to eat out, 72% of respondents reported that the cleanliness and hygiene of the establishment was important to them; overall a third (30%) of respondents who ate out considered this the most important factor.
  •  Overall, 44% of respondents reported having had food poisoning, in line with previous waves. As with previous waves, men (47%) were more likely than women (43%) to report having had food poisoning.

New questions gave some important insights, for example: 

  •  Of those who reported an adverse reaction or avoided certain foods, the most common foods that people reported having an adverse reaction to were cows’ milk and cows’ milk products (22%), cereals containing gluten (13%) and molluscs e.g. mussels, oysters (11%).
  •  Overall, 43% of respondents reported making at least one change in their buying or eating arrangements in the last twelve months for financial reasons, including 20% who had bought items on special offer more, 18% who had changed where they shopped for cheaper alternatives and 17% who said they ate out less.
  •  One third (34%) of respondents reported that they always felt confident that food is what it says it is on the label or the menu and around half (52%) felt confident most of the time. Just 3% said they rarely or never felt confident.

Full details available at the link https://www.food.gov.uk/science/research-reports/ssresearch/foodandyou

Glyphosate not classified as a carcinogen by ECHA: The European Chemical Agency’s (ECHA’s) Committee for Risk Assessment has agreed to maintain the current harmonised classification of glyphosate as a substance causing serious eye damage and being toxic to aquatic life with long-lasting effects.  It also concluded that the available scientific evidence did not meet the criteria to classify glyphosate as a carcinogen, as a mutagen or as toxic for reproduction.