Dear All,
Weekly News for 13th August is detailed below.
Have a good week.
Gordon Polson – Director
Federation of Bakers
Economic News
Barclays Marco Economic Update: A disappointing start to q3’18 as sentiment sours. The following surveys were conducted against the backdrop of political turmoil that followed the Chequers Cabinet meeting and the spate of senior resignations that followed. Consumer confidence deteriorated in jul’18, dropping 1 point to -10, below the long-term average of -9. This was driven mainly by concerns over the broader economic outlook as well as a decline in intentions to make major purchases. Business sentiment also deteriorated. Manufacturing pmi eased to 54.0 in jul’18, and echoed the softer sentiment across Europe. Jul’18 output and future sentiment dropped to the lowest levels in 16 and 11 months, respectively. Headline services activity fell 1.6 points as Brexit uncertainty moved back into focus leading to “delayed decision making and greater risk aversion among clients”. Taken at face value, composite pmis now suggest downside risks to our +0.4% (q⁄q) forecast for q3’18 GDP and this comes just one day after the unanimous vote by the MPC to lift rates based on a confident forecast that growth will surpass 0.4% (q⁄q) in every quarter of the next few years. Accordingly we continue to express our scepticism that the bank will be in a position to hike once more by the end of 2019. We and the consensus expect the preliminary print of q2’18 GDP at 0.4% (q⁄q). Activity data for apr’18 and may’18 signalled a recovery from the q1’18 disruptions and suggested that q2’18 would also benefit from temporary – but this time positive – factors. In may’18, good weather and royal wedding celebrations boosted spending, and led to the strongest reading in the service sector in six months, signalling a strong contribution to q2’18 GDP.
Monetary Policy Summary:The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy to meet the 2% inflation target, and in a way that helps to sustain growth and employment. At its meeting ending on 1 August 2018, the MPC voted unanimously to increase Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 0.75%. The Committee voted unanimously to maintain the stock of sterling non-financial investment-grade corporate bond purchases, financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, at £10 billion. The Committee also voted unanimously to maintain the stock of UK government bond purchases, financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, at £435 billion.
Since the May Inflation Report, the near-term outlook has evolved broadly in line with the MPC’s expectations. Recent data appear to confirm that the dip in output in the first quarter was temporary, with momentum recovering in the second quarter. The labour market has continued to tighten and unit labour cost growth has firmed. The MPC’s updated projections for inflation and activity are set out in the August Inflation Report and are broadly similar to its projections in May. In the MPC’s central forecast, conditioned on the gently rising path of Bank Rate implied by current market yields, GDP is expected to grow by around 1¾% per year on average over the forecast period. Global demand grows above its estimated potential rate and financial conditions remain accommodative, although both are somewhat less supportive of UK activity over the forecast period. Net trade and business investment continue to support UK activity, while consumption grows in line with the subdued pace of real incomes. Although modest by historical standards, the projected pace of GDP growth over the forecast is slightly faster than the diminished rate of supply growth, which averages around 1½% per year. The MPC continues to judge that the UK economy currently has a very limited degree of slack. Unemployment is low and is projected to fall a little further. In the MPC’s central projection, therefore, a small margin of excess demand emerges by late 2019 and builds thereafter, feeding through into higher growth in domestic costs than has been seen over recent years. CPI inflation was 2.4% in June, pushed above the 2% target by external cost pressures resulting from the effects of sterling’s past depreciation and higher energy prices. The contribution of external pressures is projected to ease over the forecast period while the contribution of domestic cost pressures is expected to rise. Taking these influences together, and conditioned on the gently rising path of Bank Rate implied by current market yields, CPI inflation remains slightly above 2% through most of the forecast period, reaching the target in the third year. The MPC continues to recognise that the economic outlook could be influenced significantly by the response of households, businesses and financial markets to developments related to the process of EU withdrawal. The Committee judges that an increase in Bank Rate of 0.25 percentage points is warranted at this meeting. The Committee also judges that, were the economy to continue to develop broadly in line with its Inflation Report projections, an ongoing tightening of monetary policy over the forecast period would be appropriate to return inflation sustainably to the 2% target at a conventional horizon. Any future increases in Bank Rate are likely to be at a gradual pace and to a limited extent.
Brexit: The CBI has published Open and controlled – a new approach to immigration after Brexit. The report outlines why immigration matters to 18 different sectors of the economy and makes 17 clear policy recommendations to inform the post-Brexit immigration system.
The report is based on extensive consultation with members as part of the CBI’s submission to the Migration Advisory Committee. The CBI also gathered further evidence from the UK’s leading trade associations – representing a combined 129,000 firms – to understand the labour and skills requirements of different sectors that together make up the UK economy. The report is clear that EU workers must not be subject to the same burdensome rules as existing non-EU workers. It also states migration should be put on the table in trade negotiations, first with the EU and then other countries around the world in future. As the UK leaves the EU, the UK must remain open to talent from both Europe and around the world. Policy decisions on post-Brexit immigration are yet to be taken, with a long-awaited White Paper from government expected around the end of the year.
Summary of the CBI report’s recommendations:
Build public trust in the UK’s immigration system by shifting away from controlling numbers to assessing contribution and by investing in local public services where demand has been increased by migration:
- Drop the net migration target and replace it with a system that increases control by ensuring that people coming to the UK make a positive contribution to the economy
- Reform the Controlling Migration Fund so that local schools and hospitals receive extra funding where demand is increased by immigration
Reform the UK’s non-EU immigration system so that firms can better access people and skills from around the world, not just the EU:
- Simplify the process for obtaining a visa so that it is manageable for small companies, by making it easier to become a licensed sponsor or by removing the requirement altogether
- Reform the Tier 2 visa route so that employers can access the range of skills that they need, not only graduates earning £30,000 or more
- Scrap the Tier 2 visa cap to give businesses the certainty that workers will get a visa if they meet the Points Based criteria
Recognise the strong links between people and trade as the UK forges new economic relationships on the world stage:
- Negotiate the simplest possible travel arrangements for all British and European citizens to avoid lengthy border delays at sea and air ports after Brexit
- Preserve easy mobility of staff in our new relationship with the EU, including intra-company transfers, temporary postings and temporary business visits
- Ensure that both mobility and migration are an integral part of all future trade deals that the UK negotiates with other parts of the world, starting with the EU
Replace free movement with a new open and controlled immigration system for EU citizens:
- Establish a new system for EU immigration because extending the current non-EU immigration system would be entirely unworkable for business
- Introduce compulsory registration for EU citizens soon after arrival in the UK
- Restrict EU citizens’ ability to stay to three months unless they can prove that they are working, studying or are self-sufficient
- Secure through negotiation with the EU a new test linked to local labour market conditions, such as unemployment rates for specified professions, which would trigger prioritisation of local recruitment
- Reinstate controls on access to in-work benefits agreed between the UK and the EU prior to the referendum
- Continue to exempt EU workers from the Immigration Health Surcharge and the Immigration Skills Charge
Ensure that the transition to any new migration system is done with respect for people and in an orderly manner:
- Legally guarantee the rights of EU citizens already in the UK, as set out in the draft Withdrawal Agreement, even in the event of a ‘no deal’ scenario
- Shift the tone of the debate around immigration to focus on the positive benefits and send a signal that the UK is open for business and an attractive place to study, work and build a career
- Ensure businesses have at least two years to adapt to any new immigration system, from the point at which new rules are known and formally agreed
FSA – Public Attitudes Tracker Survey Results Published
The FSA published on 1 August 2018 the results of the Biannual Public Attitudes Tracker (May 2018) which monitors changes in consumer attitudes towards food-related issues and the FSA.
The top food safety issues of concern for respondents were:
- • Food hygiene when eating out (33%)
- • Chemicals from the environment, such as lead, in food (30%)
- • Food additives (29%)
- • Food poisoning (28%) The top wider food issues of concern were:
- • The amount of sugar in food (55%)
- • Food waste (51%)
- • Food prices (43%)
- • Animal welfare (42%) In addition, 82% of respondents reported that they were aware of hygiene standards in places they eat out at or buy food from but only 15% of respondents were aware of specific rules about allergens and 11% reported that they have a food intolerance and / or allergy themselves.
- The majority reported that they trust that food is what it says it is and is accurately labelled (75%) and 73% trusted the authenticity of ingredients / origin / quality of food. Findings also demonstrated that only 41% of respondents trusted that people who produce and sell food have their best interests at heart.
WRAP:
Behaviours that lead to food waste – Webinar
This year, WRAP has been working with behavioural science specialists at Ogilvy Change to understand what’s behind the behaviours that lead our target audiences to waste so much food. We are looking forward to sharing these insights with you and introducing you to a range of possible interventions that could provide the solution, and advise you that we are looking to find partners to run pilots with in the coming year.
To make this as accessible as possible for everyone, we will deliver this via a webinar on Thursday 23 August from 2pm-4pm, and then repeat the session on Thursday 6 September 10am-12pm. Sign up using Eventbrite by clicking on the date you want to attend.
This free webinar is aimed at Citizen Engagement Working Group members, but is open more widely to any C2025 signatories who are interested in engaging citizens on food waste reduction. As part of the webinar you will also get a brief update on WRAP’s Citizen Food Waste Prevention activities and an opportunity to kick-start plans for a more effective Citizen Engagement Working Group going forward.
Campaign Moment – ‘Chill the Fridge Out’
Secondly, our next Love Food Hate Waste citizen campaign moment – ‘Chill the Fridge Out’ – will run from 8-28 October and aims to get 18-34 year olds to keep food fresher for longer by setting their fridge temperatures to below 5 degrees C. To find out more about this exciting campaign and the opportunities for partners to get involved, join us for a free 45 minute webinar on Friday 24 August from 10am-10.45am or Thursday 30th August from 2pm to 2.45pm. Sign up using Eventbrite by clicking on the date you want to attend.
For further details on either of these opportunities, please contact sarah.clayton@wrap.org.uk.
A Few Events and Training Courses:
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Carbon Trust: Green Business Fund Workshops The Carbon Trust Green Business Fund is the energy efficiency support service for SMEs in England, Scotland and Wales. These free-to-attend workshops will help companies learn how to identify and implement opportunities to reduce energy costs within their business and how to access further services from the Green Business Fund.
5 SEPTEMBER 2018, Bath, UK
11 SEPTEMBER 2018, Cambridge, UK
10 OCTOBER 2018, Herefordshire, UK
19 OCTOBER 2018, Chippenham, UK
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Cereals & Grains 18 will make history in 2018 by convening for the first time in London! The location isn’t the only thing new about AACC International’s Annual Meeting, as this year’s meeting will feature grain-themed topical days—from Field to Fork. The week will kick off on Sunday featuring Sustainability from Gene to Field, and will keep the momentum going on Monday with the following theme:
Safe Ingredients and Quality Products
Here are just a few highlights from Monday’s program: What Does Carbohydrate Quality Mean? Carbohydrate quality has been a topic of keen interest in the nutrition world for several years. Carbohydrate-containing foods are often maligned and classified as nutritionally lower quality because they normally require some form of processing to be edible and therefore, viewed as nutritionally inferior. We see evidence of this in the marketplace as various low carbohydrate diets continue trending among consumers due to these beliefs. Also, the gluten free trend remains strong because, like low carb diets, it is often viewed as a ‘healthier’ way to eat. Scientifically, much progress has been made to better understand the role of whole grains, dietary fiber and sugars related to health outcomes. There continues to be interest and controversy about the role of Glycemic Index in building healthy diets. Importantly, nutrition policy and regulations in many countries are influenced by developments in the science but also by some of the controversies and lack of consensus regarding their relationship to health. This session will address dietary carbohydrates and the diverse roles they play in the diet and their relationship to various health outcomes. As scientists, we often focus on individual carbohydrate components (e.g., fiber, sugar, starch, WG) and their separate/unique roles in diet and health. We will explore what carbohydrate quality means relative to these various types of carbohydrate and consider the role that processing plays in the carbohydrate quality of grains. |
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Expanding the Concept of Grain Food Safety
In this session the concept of safety for grain and grain-based products will be expanded from a more traditional view to include contemporary and potential future issues. More specifically, the lectures will cover bacterial hazards associated with grain-based products, allergens, food fraud, regulations and the always evolving consumer’s ideas around food safety. Those who attend this session will walk away with a greater awareness of contemporary and potential issues related to food safety in the grain industry (i.e. microbial issues in grain-based foods, allergens, food fraud), an understanding of new regulations that have been created in response to changes in political climate, as well as an understanding of the evolving consumer’s ideas around food safety. |
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Linking Consumer Perceptions with Analytical Data to Address Consumer Needs Consumers perceive textural attributes, e.g. of baked products, in a very specific and subjective way. Sensory evaluation of cereal and grain products is presumed to be the only way thus far to truly evaluate this textural perception. Some analytical techniques, however, have been developed and are being developed to measure textural attributes quantitatively. This session focuses on the link between consumer perception and preferences regarding texture, and the analytical results generated to measure these. Those who attend this session will learn more about how texture is perceived by consumers, which texture attributes are preferred by consumers, and which analytical methods could be used to measure this quantitatively. |
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From A(flatoxins) to Z(earalenone) – A Comprehensive Look at Mycotoxins in Grains The presence of mycotoxins in raw grain and cereal-based foods is regulated in many countries to manage potential health risks for consumers. This session will introduce attendees to the occurrence of these fungal toxins, their potential health effects, and current regulations. Speakers will also highlight and discuss factors important to anyone involved in selling, buying, and using cereal grains. These will cover considerations for the analysis of mycotoxins in grain, including sampling, as low mycotoxin concentrations and heterogeneous distributions can cause considerable challenges for accurate and precise measurement. The effects of processing on the fate of mycotoxins in cereal grain products will be presented, as will the potential effects of climate change on the occurrence of mycotoxins in grain.
Those who attend this session will:
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| Early registration: Register by August 20, 2018 and save over $200 on the registration fee.
More ways to save: Meeting + Membership = Registration Savings. If you are not yet a member, now is a great time to join. When you join AACCI with your meeting registration you receive even more of a discount. Choose “Meeting Plus Membership” and SAVE today! Reserve your room: Cereals & Grains 18 will be held at the Hilton London Metropole. Book your discounted room at the meeting hotel for convenience and to be near other conference attendees—just mention the AACCI Annual Meeting to get the special rate. |
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