Economic News

CBI Latest Economic Update

• UK economy continues to grow at a subdued pace: The economy is estimated to have grown by 1.4% in 2018 and we expect growth of 1.4% in 2019 and 1.6% in 2020.
• The prospect of a “no deal” Brexit remains the most immediate risk to the UK economy, and would likely lead to both greater financial market volatility and weaker economic growth than in our baseline forecast. GDP growth would likely be more volatile in the near-term too, particularly if firms turn to stockpiling or confidence becomes more volatile. Survey evidence indicates that stockpiling is already happening in manufacturing and distribution
• Global economy continues to expand, but it appears that growth has peaked. This reflects factors including the maturing of markets such as China, higher oil prices, tighter global financial conditions, and the impact of rising trade tensions on business confidence. The slowdown is likely to be gradual, so expansion is still expected at a relatively healthy 3.7% in 2018, 3.4% in 2019 and 3.5% in 2020.

 

CBI Brexit 1: Impact Of a ‘No Deal’ Brexit Across The UK

UK businesses are dealing with significant levels of political turmoil and feel that no deal is hurtling closer. The impacts of a no deal are vast and will impact every region and nation of the UK. From the South West of England, to the North East of Scotland, businesses are telling us a no deal would be a disaster for the UK economy, for businesses and for individual livelihoods. Please find the CBI’s analysis here and to discuss more about what CBI members are saying about the impacts for their businesses, please click here.

 

CBI Brexit 2: member opportunities:  

NEW: Urgent snap survey: Inform the CBI’s positioning on Brexit

With 5 weeks to go until the UK’s exit from the EU, the CBI would like to invite you to take part in an urgent snap survey to inform the CBI’s positioning on Brexit in this current unpredictable political environment.

The survey will also update our understanding of how companies of different sizes and sectors are managing the prospect of changes in the relationship between the UK and the remaining countries in the EU, including the possibility of a ‘no deal’. The results will help to shape the CBI’s messaging in communicating the views of business to government and other stakeholders, as well as sharing best practices across the business community.

Therefore, as our Trade Association members, we would appreciate you sharing this survey with your members and inviting them to participate.

The survey consists of around 10 questions and should take less than 10 minutes to complete.

Take the survey here

The closing date for the survey is Tuesday 26 February at 5pm. 

All answers will be aggregated anonymously, and the information gathered will be used for no other purpose.

 

 

 

Defra Secretary confirms UK will introduce tariffs on food imports

Speaking to NFU members Michael Gove, the Secretary of State for Environment Food and Rural Affairs, indicated that the UK will apply tariffs on food imports in the case of a “no deal” Brexit in order to protect livestock British farmers. He also said that British food standards will not be lowered “in pursuit of trade deals”.

 

UK Govt Brexit Update: Please see below a number of links to recently published or updated Government guidance documents on preparing for a no-deal EU-Exit:

1. A food and drink sector web page:
   1. This includes guidance on importing and exporting, labelling, EU nationals, chemical regulations, EU-FTAs & tariffs, and data Protection.
   2. There are also webpages dedicated to farming and chemicals.
2. Guidance for businesses that export animals, animal products, fish and fishery products to the EU.
3. A fourth edition of HMRC’s Partnership Pack preparing for changes at the UK Border. The contents page of this document sets out which pages have been updated.
4. An update on the progress of transitioning over EU-FTAs and what companies can do in the UK leaves the EU without these agreements in place.

AHDB | Preparing for EU exit :

 

With the UK’s imminent departure from the EU, it’s vital farming and food businesses prepare and we are aware that many have already done so. With the prospect of no deal still looming we know there’s important information that food businesses in particular need to be aware of. To help farmers, growers and food businesses get Brexit-ready, AHDB has created a range of important information and tools on our website at ahdb.org.uk/brexit The information includes: Easy links to Government guidance on no deal An impact calculator and resilience checklist to help farms gauge their resilience to Brexit Sign up to AHDB Brexit reports Ask us Brexit related questions Please advise any interested colleagues that this information is now available.

 

Other News

Apprenticeships: CBI has released a new report Getting Apprenticeships Right: Next Steps on how the additional funding given to the Institute of Apprenticeships (IfA) in the Budget should be used ensure the Institute is a credible, independent body with the teeth to effect changes. This report will form the first of a series of Apprenticeship Levy reports over the coming year.

This report sets out four priorities for the Institute:

• Improving quality provision as an independent market regulator;
• Making the standards development process more efficient;
• Ensuring greater transparency in funding decisions; and
• Assuming responsibility for T-levels.