FOB CEO Weekly News for 23rd September 2019

Barclays Economic Outlook: UK Outlook: Weak activity behind the headline while labour market appeared solid.

Prime Minister (pm) Boris Johnson’s clash with parliament continued in week commencing 16th sep’19, showcasing the determination of Members of Parliament (MPS) to block a no-deal Brexit. With the Benn bill now enacted and quick elections unlikely to happen before the end of oct’19, PM Johnson may be forced to request an article 50 extension at the 17-18 oct’19 EU summit, unless an amended withdrawal agreement, agreed and voted by the EU could be voted on by the UK Parliament.

Amidst further setbacks, PM Johnson has step-up efforts to strike a deal ahead of the 31st oct’19 deadline. Meanwhile, the Scottish Court of Session ruled the prorogation of parliament was unlawful. It will be up to the UK Supreme Court to have the final say on 24th sep’19. The report that sets out the reasonable worst-case scenario for a no-deal Brexit was made public, pointing to the potential for the UK to face the risks of major disruption and a rise in public disorder.

Despite an ‘agri-food’ proposal being rejected by Irish Deputy PM Coveney, week commencing 16th sep’19, has seen PM Johnson spending time and energy on trying to strike a deal. He is scheduled to meet Juncker on 23rd sep’19.

UK gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.3% m-o-m in jul’19, admittedly the strongest increase since jan’19 (0.5%). As a result, the 3m/3m pace increased 0.2pp to 0.0% and the q3’19 carry over is at 0.4% q-o-q, a bit above 0.3% q-o-q baseline forecast.

The activity outlook is not appealing, the current strength in the labour market suggests private consumption should continue to be a reliable anchor to UK GDP growth. Total weekly earnings growth gained another 0.2pp after 0.3pp last month, reaching 4.0% 3m⁄y, it’s strongest since spring 2008. In spite of hiring intentions heading south, real total and core pay are now back to their highest level since 2015, which should underpin private consumption.

Brexit Update: DEFRA is continuing to create and share guidance to ensure businesses are aware of what they need to do to prepare for Brexit as we move closer to 31 October.

Specific guidance for food and drink businesses is available on the Food and Drink GOV.UK landing page, including advice for importers and exporters of animal products, and advice about food labelling, tariffs, data protection and more.

In addition, this email includes links to shareable resources like our updated Food and Drink sector leaflet to help you share guidance with your members and communities, and information about how you can access government support and advice through events, webinars.

Events, webinars and support
Ongoing events – new dates and locations
Further dates have been confirmed for the Brexit Business Readiness events, DIT workshops, and HMRC webinars. Please follow the links below for full details.

Brexit Business Readiness Events
DIT Get Ready for Brexit Workshops (particularly useful for businesses who are exporting to the EU)
HMRC Getting ready for Brexit webinars (for UK businesses involved in the movement of goods between the EU and the UK)

Government urged to set food waste targets: According to the report Our planet, Our health by the Environmental Audit Committee (EAC), the government should aim to achieve net zero emissions on food waste by 2050 at the very latest through its National Food Strategy. The strategy should recognise the risk posed by the UK importing 40.0% of its food.

The report also recommended the government should explore policies to offset these risks, to ensure that the UK delivers healthy diets, especially in the event of a no-deal Brexit. A high dependency on imported fresh food, coupled with failure to act on climate breakdown, was risking national food security. MPs have urged the government to set out annual food waste targets at every level of the food supply chain to mitigate the growing impact of climate change on domestic and global production

Sugar Reduction Targets: PHE has published their progress report for year 2 of the sugars reduction programme, together with a summary report and associated summary tables. The report shows between 2015 and 2018, there has been an overall 2.9% reduction in sales weighted average sugar content among retail and manufacturer branded products.

The report also gives the sales weighted average sugar content of drinks subject to the Soft Drinks Levy, showing a decrease of 28.8%.

For the first time, there is data on progress with cakes and morning goods, where the baseline data has been taken from 2017 due to data issues (rather than 2015 as with the other categories).

Overall PHE’s tone has been neutral, which is a departure from the expected naming and shaming approach.

FDF Update on Defra Responsibilities: Following the latest reshuffle, Defra have this week confirmed Ministerial portfolios.

Zac Goldsmith is promoted to Minister of State (still joint Defra/ DFID), and now attending Cabinet, He has overall responsibility for food chain policy, as well as animal welfare; international environment, climate, biodiversity and conservation; illegal wildlife trade; and domestic and international forestry policy.

Rebecca Pow is Parliamentary Under Secretary of State, with responsibility for the Environment Bill and the 25 Year Environment Plan, as well as climate change adaptation; resource and environmental management (including waste, air quality, chemicals, litter); and floods and water, effectively taking the whole of Therese Coffey’s portfolio.

FDF this week wrote to Rebecca Pow to congratulate her and raise the pressing issue of the escalating prices for Packaging Recovery Notes.

“Safe handling of enzymes in the bakery sector” Please find attached and hereunder information to the announced webinars.

Full details are available at this link https://amfep.org/about-enzymes/safety/webinars-on-the-safe-handling-of-enzymes-in-the-bakery-sector/

Webinar series on the Safe Handling of Enzymes in the Bakery sector

AMFEP, the Association of Manufacturers and Formulators of Enzyme products & FEDIMA, the Federation of European Manufacturers and Suppliers of Ingredients to the Bakery, Confectionery and Patisseries Industries, are hosting a series of webinars to present the Guidelines on the Safe Handling of Enzymes in the Bakery Sector (link) jointly developed in 2018. Save the dates!

Webinar 1 – 15 October (14:00 CET): Introduction to safe handling of enzymes in the bakery supply chain, incl. regulatory aspects

Webinar 2 – 29 October (14:00 CET): Control of exposure during handling of enzymes in bakery sector – Artisan bakeries, Bakery Schools & Demonstration Bakeries

Webinar 3 – 19 November (14:00 CET): Control of exposure during handling of enzymes in bakery sector: Flour millers, Industrial bakeries & ingredients manufacturers

Webinar 4 – 26 November (14:00 CET): Health surveillance and air monitoring