FOB Chief Executive’s Weekly News – 5th August 2019

Dear All,

Detailed below is the Weekly News for 5th August.

Have a good week.

Gordon Polson

Chief Executive – Federation of Bakers Ltd

Barclays Economic Update: As per Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members’ statements, Barclays believe that the bank’s central scenario is expected to lose its forward guiding power in the opinion of market analysts, who believe that the risks of a no-deal Brexit have risen. Markets are pricing a binary outcome where rates may increase a bit or are cut aggressively by the end of the 2019 if a chaotic Brexit materialises. Also, Barclays believed that the balance of views on the MPC has shifted to a more accommodate stance, as aggressive members have withdrawn to a more neutral stance. However, Barclays still does not expect any change in interest rate over the near term, baring a no-deal outcome by the end of the year and an economic downturn that is not yet in the data. Barclays’ forecasts indicated growth of c.1.0% in 2019 and next inflation c.2.0%. Markets are now pricing a full 25bp rate cut by 2020. One can rationalize. Also, markets’ average pricing as the combination of a central scenario whereby interest rates increased slowly and a 30.0% chance of rates being cut by 75bp in case of a no-deal Brexit.

Further, Barclays expect forecasts for 2019, taking into account softer than expected growth in the UK and abroad. Downside risks in the Europe have partially materialized and global trade continued to be slowed down by ongoing uncertainties relating to tariffs discussions. At the same time, the bank may have to revise down its GDP forecast for q2’19 from flat to slightly negative as suggested by the last round of data. However, tight labour market conditions and firmer wages continued to support a fairly optimistic outlook, barring a major Brexit upset or data turnaround. On inflation, GDP depreciation and higher oil prices may lead the BoE (Bank of England) to push up its forecasts for 2020.

FDF Brexit Update: The new administration has been clear: we are being marched towards a no-deal exit. Which is no surprise given four out of the five top Cabinet jobs are now held by ardent Brexiteers, supported by senior staff from the original ‘Vote Leave’ campaign.

Michael Gove’s departure as Defra Secretary is a serious loss to industry. I am sure he will bring the rigour and brilliance he displayed at Defra to bear across Whitehall. I also pay tribute to David Rutley, who has departed Defra and returned to the Whips Office. David was an exemplary Minister in his willingness to listen and act upon industry’s concerns – he will be missed.

For our part, we will work with partners across the food chain to develop the No-deal Brexit food hub. This is emerging as a one stop shop for all information relating to a no-deal exit. Please take a look at http://www.brexitfoodhub.co.uk. We would welcome your comments as we develop this further.

We face a huge degree of uncertainty over the coming weeks. I believe that FDF, as well as the rest of the business community, is going to have a serious fight on its hands to persuade Government of the mortal damage a no-deal exit would inflict on our industry. As I am sure you know, we will do every single thing we can to stop a no-deal exit happening and our utmost best to mitigate its worst privations if it does.

CBI Brexit Report: CBI released a comprehensive report ‘What comes next?’ on the business analysis of no deal preparations.  This includes an analysis of no deal preparations of the UK, the EU and businesses in 27 key areas of the economy.  They have concluded that, despite existing mitigations, disruption is likely in 24 of those areas immediately after no deal. See Agri-Food section from pages 52-56 of the report.

Government (Junior) Ministerial Portfolios:  

MP for Bury St Edmunds Jo Churchill was appointed the new Public Health and Primary Care Minister. While she was motivated to enter politics through a personal experience with cancer, she has said little on obesity, public health, or products high in fat, salt and sugar.

At Defra, we saw Dr Therese Coffey promoted to Minister of State, and the return of George Eustice MP who also becomes a Minister of State. They are joined by environmentalist and former London Mayoral candidate, MP for Richmond Zac Goldsmith, who shares his role with the Department for International Development (DFID). Lord Gardiner of Kimble remains as the Defra spokesperson in the Lords.

Coffey will continue with the resources brief, as well as responsibility for the 25 Year Environment Plan, the Environment Bill, and chemicals.

Eustice returns to his previous farming brief, taking on farm food production, growth, skills and apprenticeships. He is also responsible for transition negotiations, market access and exports, pesticides, and better regulation on the science and innovation front.

Goldsmith will be responsible for food chain policy including the Sector Council, the National Food Strategy, food safety, and live exports and animal welfare as well as marine litter, and conservation. His brief crosses over with DFID on the illegal wildlife trade and whaling elements.

BNF: Diet and heart disease – what have we learnt over the last 15 years? The new Task Force report Cardiovascular Disease: Diet, Nutrition and Emerging Risk Factors, 2nd Edition was published in February 2019 and is available at https://bit.ly/2A3UQLt. A summary of the key messages in a Q&A format is available free to download at https://bit.ly/2D2MbLA.  Key messages from the second edition of the report have been translated into a consumer resource providing practical tips on diet, bodyweight, quality of sleep, stress management and alcohol consumption, for example, to protect against heart disease and stroke (https://bit.ly/2BYRc7z).

BEIS Review of Grocery Code Adjudicator Performance: The Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) is undertaking its second statutory review into the effectiveness of the GCA and its performance since 1 April 2016.

SACN report on saturated fats & health finally published: The long awaited report on saturated fats and health from the Scientific Advisory Committee on Nutrition (SACN) was published on 1 August.  It concludes – as previous reports have done – that reducing saturated fats intakes lowers blood cholesterol and the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD); saturated fats in our diet should be swapped with unsaturated fats; and there is no need to change current official advice that saturated fat should not exceed around 10% of food energy.  SACN’s comprehensive review considered the considerable body of evidence published since the last review of the scientific evidence by the UK’s Committee on Medical Aspects of Food and Nutrition Policy (COMA) in 1994.  Its conclusions are based on 47 systematic reviews and meta-analyses. Survey data since the 1980s shows that the main sources of saturated fats have changed little in the last 30 years.  Intake of saturated fats has fallen over this time, but it remains above recommendations at around 12% of dietary energy.

New funding to help you achieve your commitments under the WRAP/IGD Food Waste Reduction Roadmap

What could the £3m FareShare Surplus with Purpose Fund* cover?

Whether it’s overproduction, packaging errors, short-shelf life or Brexit contingency planning, food surplus is inevitable. But food waste doesn’t have to be. FareShare can turn your surplus food into a lifeline for frontline charities right across the UK. The fund can cover costs including:

Resource & wages: labour costs (incl. management costs needed to build/change/implement new processes)

Packaging: to keep your surplus product in a safe condition

Transport: either via your existing haulier or ours

Freezing: incl. blast freezing short-dated chilled foods and additional storage and transport costs

Lost income from recycling: covering lost income made from sales of stock to animal feed or animal feed processing, or to anaerobic digestion.

Up to £50,000 funding to help you achieve your commitments under the WRAP/IGD Food Waste Reduction Roadmap

Half of the UK’s largest food businesses have already signed up to the Food Waste Reduction Roadmap to measure, report on, and reduce waste in their operations.
Your business could eligible for up to £50,000** worth of funding to offset the costs of redistributing surplus food to charities via the FareShare Surplus with Purpose Fund – helping you ensure that no food that could feed people is wasted. Greater sums can be negotiated where appropriate for high volumes of surplus food.

This fund is available for a limited time only
To find out more contact us on 020 7064 8911 or email foodoffers@fareshare.org.uk

 

 

Criminal fines for health and safety breaches have increased significantly since the 2016 Health and Safety Sentencing Guidelines were introduced. Are you at risk?

Join the FDF in partnership with Willis Towers Watson to get prepared and ensure you don’t run the risk of H&S breaches with our HSE Regulatory Mock Trial event on 15 November 2019.

The Health and Safety Sentencing Guidelines, introduced in 2016, has resulted in significant increases in criminal fines for health and safety breaches by organisations and individual directors and managers responsible for health and safety governance within their businesses in England and Wales. The Food and Drink industry has already seen the impact of the guidelines with a number of sizeable fines across the sector.

Willis Towers Watson has filmed a ‘Regulatory Mock Trial’ in response to the changes to assist in managing the increased risks associated with corporate health and safety and the guidelines.

The Mock Trial training uses seminar based learning with audio visual footage of the trial which has been specifically designed and produced to give attendees an authentic insight into the regulatory trial process. This includes a demonstration of how witness evidence and documentation is presented and challenged in court and will require those attending to be fully involved in the trial process and consideration of evidence by playing the role of a jury member. Specialist, practicing barristers act as the advocates for the prosecution and defence, with the case being heard by a Crown Court Recorder before an independent jury of 12, to ensure that the Mock Trial is as realistic as possible.
Please see an extract of the footage »

Who should attend?

  • Directors, managers and other personnel involved in the creation, implementation and funding of their business’ overall health and safety strategy
  • Individuals responsible for insurance and investigating/managing accidents

Booking and more information »
HSE Regulatory Mock Trials
Friday 15 November
51 Lime Street, EC3M 7DQ
London, England

Pricing
FDF Member: £130 plus VAT
Non-Member: £150 plus VAT